We took Aaron Baddeley in the 2012 US Open, a tournament that finished last weekend. Baddeley was available at 83-1 on our preferred bookmaker in the Tournament Outright market, and was even better odds on betting exchanges such as Betfair.
It's a shame that he missed the cut after a couple of consecutive poor rounds.
We received a couple of emails asking how we arrived at Baddeley as our selection for tournament winner, and we thought it might be a good topic for an article, so here goes.
When betting on golf, we focus on two bet types: round head to head betting, and tournament winner markets.
Round head to head markets are framed around two players who will often play in the same group for that round. This bet type has odds for each player that will approximate even money in many cases in the absence of an outstanding player in the matchup.
When betting head to heads, analysis can begin with us taking a set against a player who we believe is faltering, or playing into some poor form, or has a game that we believe is not suitable to the course they are facing, or has a swing that is breaking down. The qualitative reasons for wagering here can be many and varied.
As the tournament progresses, round head to heads will be affected by issues within the tournament itself as it unfolds. Betting round 2 for example, requires that you are familiar with the drama and tension of round 1 and anything that can be read into that round. Was a player unlucky, but still performing well? Was the weather unsuitable, and a round played in fine conditions could bring improvements?
There are many angles to consider here.
Tournament winner bet types involve selecting a player and investing an amount on the final result of the tournament. Returns for a successful wager here are far superior to head to head results, but correspondingly difficult. Most favoured players (with the exception of a fit and in-form Tiger Woods), can be backed at 10-1 or better, all the way out to 1000-1 for any of the more less fancied entrants.
Finding the best prospects in the winners market can mean taking the big-picture into account and as always, assessing the value of the player at the price.
For example, us taking Aaron Baddeley had involved us looking at his statistics and playing history, and contrasting it with the tournament conditions he was going to have to deal with at the Olympic Club course. In summary, historically, Baddeley is capable of playing some excellent quality golf, is young and fit, and has been ranked within the top 20 before. Statistically speaking Aaron Baddeley is also an incredibly skilled putter, and is reasonably ranked on other key statistics we like such as scrambling, and greens in regulation percentage.
Golf betting, just like any other type of sports betting market, is a unique sport that requires its own particular approach in order to find the value you need to make a profit. Betting tournament winners will need some patience, but if you analyse in a big picture sense value will always win out.
Pay attention, develop your own golf betting sense - but remember to put in the hard work!
By pinpointing great golf positions to complement MLB and NFL positions, our small team returned the following from strategic sports investment.
2008 +176.55% 2009 +8.6% 2010 +46.85% 2011 +78.1% 2012 follow at the professional gambler website
The team that works out of http://www.professionalgambler.com.au has for years now proven that there's exciting money to be made selectively wagering into the competitive sports markets provided by modern online bookmakers.
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Yours in profit, Dr. Sport. - aka - Sam J. Perry
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